Flake Odds Point System

Flaking is one of the most frustrating things a man will experience in his quest for ass/love/something in between.  Plenty of intelligent commentary has been written about this baffling phenomenon — why it’s predominantly a female affliction, what steps can be taken to reduce the odds a girl will flake — so instead I’ll focus on what attributes and behaviors correlate most strongly with a tendency to flake.  These observations are based on my personal experiences and those of my friends.  It’s not a scientifically valid survey, but the anecdotes seem to jibe with what science has to say about female psychology.

First, it helps to understand the basics.  Why girls flake can be expressed as a very simple equation:

Options = flaking

where options means how many men she can attract.  The more desirable she is, the more likely she will be to blow off any one suitor, as another one is right around the corner.

Here’s a refined version of that equation:

Options + neuroticism + extraversion = flaking

meaning that if you’ve met a smoking hot attention whore with paranoid self-esteem issues you may as well wipe your ass with that number close.  You’d’ve been better off shooting for the fuck close on the roof deck behind the fake palm tree.

Note: a girl not returning your call is not necessarily a flake.  To qualify as a true flake, there has to have been real indications of attraction prior to getting her number.  Positive indicators include kissing, lots of touching, her playing with her necklace or rings,  sexually open body language, talking about you at least 30% as much as herself, seeking your approval, a willingness to be led by you around whatever venue you and her happen to be, and an obvious eagerness to give her number when you ask for it.

The following is an elaboration on my personal checklist for identifying which girls are likely to flake.  I subtract a point for every trait or behavior I think will increase the odds of a flake and add a point for those things that I think will reduce the odds of a flake.  Data that have little impact on flake odds are not included.

  • works in service industry:    -1
  • as a waitress:    -1
  • younger than 25:    -1
  • older than 30:    +1
  • more than 10 years younger than me:    -1
  • non-american*:    +1
  • big breasted/voluptuous:    -1
  • brief kissing:    +1
  • extended makeout:    -1
  • shy:    +1
  • first on the dance floor:    -1
  • slutty dresser:    -1
  • wears drab colors:    +1
  • easily distracted:    -1
  • out with a large group of friends:    -1
  • alpha female of the group:    -1
  • mother hen/designated driver of the group:    +1
  • lone wolf:    +1
  • highly educated:    +1
  • heavy makeup:    -1
  • blonde or redhead:    -1
  • parents still married:    +1
  • child of divorce:    -1
  • only child:    -1
  • has at least one brother:    +1
  • met her on a weeknight:    +1
  • on a rainy weeknight:    +1
  • at a dive bar:    +1
  • at 3AM in a crimson-colored nightclub on a leather couch while she was rolling on E:    -100
  • single mom:    +100

* The less Anglocized the country of origin, the more likely she’ll be courteous and answer your call.

At -10 points a flake is assured.  Throw that number away or give it to your best friend.  He’s just as likely to score with her as you are.  At +10 points, she’ll pick up on the first ring.

Some of these observations make sense; others seem counterintuitive.  A waitress, like a big breasted woman, has to deal with leering men all day, so she’s open to any rationalization to shelve the guy she gave her number to.  Plus, I have a theory that very feminized, high-estrogen women (i.e., those with curvy womanly bodies) have enhanced feminine mental traits as well, like flaking.

Non-Americans just don’t take men for granted as much.  Kissing a girl for too long will give her buyer’s remorse the next day when she wakes up feeling guilty.  Educated women live more structured lives and exhibit more self-discipline, two traits which are anti-flake.  Shy girls, surprisingly, will answer calls.  They have a negatively skewed sense of their own attractiveness to men as a result of not getting constant feedback through attention-seeking behavior.  Girls with high neuroticism/high extraversion who need constant reassurance of their desirability find more pleasure in collecting numbers rather than following up on them.  Younger girls have a longer time horizon and a wider suitor horizon so they can afford to dick around.  A girl who grew up in a broken household or with a daddy who let his loving kisses linger a little too long will be more likely to flake, but also more likely to feed her low self-worth by fucking you right away.

Single moms will drop their kid off at a baby hatch in order to free up time for a first date with you.


  1. I agree with your list actually. I’ve been trying to think of more like: obviously dyed blond hair with obvious roots showing, can opener nails, etc.


  2. Oh wow. I couldn’t agree more.
    As a Russian lady, I have to say that I’m very used to the Russian male courtship: overcalling. They will three times in a row, no matter how many options they have. It’s very old school. So aside from all the things that give me my score (about +4), I always answer on the first call. It’s the standard rule because it is polite.
    It’s just too bad that many American men take that as a sign of desperation and/or easiness.


  3. Couple comments..

    1. Not all options are created equal. While she may have many other options, if they are not as good as you then she will be less likely to flake.

    2. “# brief kissing: +1 # extended makeout: -1.” I’ve tried to also correlate the odds of a flake based on how much you kiss her, but my experience reveals no clear correlation. I think it depends on the quality of the makeout. If it’s a result of a drunken hookup on the dancefloor, then i’d agree that it may result in a flake. But if it’s one that came after a couple hours of talking, then it probably helped you out a lot.


  4. Great point system.
    I like that you don’t count someone not returning your call as a flake. I’ve given my number out drunkenly to random guys in the past without any interest in them whatsoever. As far as I was concerned, they were given no hints of attraction by me.
    A lot of guys in the bar scene tend to prematurely ask for a girl’s number, without laying the groundwork of flirting and establishing some sort of connection. If the girl is like me, she’ll just give her number away to get you out of her face (bad decision, I know) and ignore your calls.
    I’m not a big flaker, as your point system attested to. I got the shy girl, mother-hen, drab colors, one brother thing going on. So, I’d have to say, this is pretty accurate.


  5. roosh – yeah, the more she falls for you the less likely she’ll exercise the options on other men, even if the options are higher status in some regards. passion and love have a way of introducing inefficiencies into the market. as for extended makeouts, i shy away from them on first dates or at very public places, because i’ve been burned by them in the past. drunken makeouts are the worst though. in fact, drunken anything with a girl is not helpful.

    mm – most guys do ask for the number too early and that’s because they don’t have enough confidence in their game to stick it out for more than 15 minutes before grabbing for a sign of approval from the girl. insecure guys use the # close as an ego boost, rather than the tool it is meant to be.


  6. awesome system.

    * The less Anglocized the country of origin, the more likely she’ll be courteous and answer your call.

    visa about to expire = +10000
    really good [slangy] english = -1

    if you can get them while they’re still FOB’d out and havent been played you have a better chance.


  7. […] But like every sea change in human behavior there is an unintended downside. I’m now so finely attuned to the slightest negative feedback from women that I get skittish at the first red flag of foot-dragging. I’ll walk away from dates after ten minutes before the condensation has formed on our drinks if she hasn’t inched closer to me on the couch or if she glanced around the room more than once instead of maintaining solid eye contact. I won’t follow up for a second date even if the first date ended with her telling me to give her a call if I suspect, based on her bad body language, that she will flake. […]


  8. “You’d’ve been better off shooting for the fuck close on the roof deck behind the fake palm tree.”

    Many PUA’s preaching for the number close do not realize in many cases it is easier to fuck close.

    You just have to be a little less nice than usual, and make yourself worthy of a fuck but not a date. Read this again. And again. And again.

    Your heart blackens by this realization, but there are many women out there, who would fuck someone they deem unworthy for their number, but then give the number to the guy who “deserves it”, consequently ending up not effing him – due to him blowing it, due to her thinking it over, 563 other possible reasons…-.

    Always aim for the fuck close, and then start shooting for the number close if you fail.

    Number close tells them you are ready to invest (yea… half hour coffee date… ), so she will automatically play hard to get etc.

    Fuck close?

    You are attractive. You are telling the right things. You are behaving right. You are not nice – not triggering the “he may be the one” response – , and you are willing to walk away never to return = Fuck close.


  9. anecdotal evidence sux but:

    the two girls that flaked on me most both had masters degrees, and their parents were married.

    i’ve never been flaked on by a redhead

    i agree about the single child part. they are terrible.


  10. […] is not getting the number; it’s getting the number in such a way that minimizes the odds she will flake. I read an interesting post on the blog written by one of Roosh’s day game students, Tyler, […]


  11. […] SNL — will gradually lower your value and, hence, raise her buyer’s remorse, leading to flaking on subsequent dates. The perfect seduction moves two steps forward, one step back. No kissing = celibate LJBF. Too much […]